Andrea Mosca

Welcome. I am a Post Doctoral Researcher at the Department of Economics at the University of Bergamo.

My research sits at the intersection of Political Economy, Gender Violence, Behavioural Economics and Sports Economics. I combine administrative microdata with quasi-experimental methods to study how institutions, incentives and social norms shape individual behaviour and economic outcomes.

Feel free to get in touch for questions, comments or potential collaborations.

Andrea Mosca

Research

Publications

Tax Cuts and Tax Compliance: Evidence from Grants to Green Municipalities Forthcoming
Fiscal Studies (forthcoming)
with Giacobbe P., Ordine P. and Rose G.

This work examines whether a policy-induced reduction in a salient local tax can increase tax compliance. To achieve identification, we leverage a quasi-natural experiment occurring in Italy: since 2016, a regional law has granted a reduction in the waste tax burden for inhabitants of municipalities with an efficient waste collection system. Using municipal balance sheets data, a matched control group of non-treated municipalities, and staggered difference-in-differences strategies, results show that, in this specific institutional setting, the share of tax compliance in municipalities benefiting from the tax reduction increased relative to matched non-treated municipalities (ATT = 6.4 percent). Robustness and falsification tests confirm that our findings are specific to waste taxation remittances and pertain exclusively to the subsidized municipalities.

Presentations

  • 65th Annual Conference of the Italian Economic Association (SIE) — University of Urbino, Italy, 2024
  • 51st Annual Meeting of the European Public Choice Society (EPCS) — Vienna University of Economics, Austria, 2024
  • 35th Annual Conference of the Italian Society for Public Economics (SIEP) — University of Verona, Italy, 2023
War, Identity, and Referee Bias: Evidence from Professional Football Forthcoming
Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics (forthcoming)
with De Luca D., Ferrari D., Giacobbe P. and Samà F.

This study examines whether and how the Russia–Ukraine war influenced refereeing behavior in European professional football. Exploiting the outbreak of the conflict in February 2022 as an exogenous shock, we implement a two-way fixed effects framework using detailed player–match data from UEFA Champions League and Europa League competitions over the period 2015–2025. We show that, following the start of the war, Russian players faced a significantly higher probability of receiving red cards when matches were officiated by Ukrainian referees. In contrast, no comparable effects emerge for less severe disciplinary decisions, such as yellow cards, or for routine measures of on-field interactions. The effect neither extends to players of other nationalities nor to Ukrainian players themselves. These findings highlight that the war did not trigger a generalized change in refereeing standards. Rather, its impact is confined to rare and high-discretion disciplinary decisions in identity-salient contexts. Overall, the results provide evidence that major geopolitical conflicts can generate selective behavioral distortions even within highly regulated and formally neutral institutional environments such as international sports.

Help-Seeking After Gender-Based Violence: The Role of Local Female Political Representation Published
European Journal of Political Economy, 2026, p.102832
with Giacobbe P., Ordine P. and Rose G.

Using data from Italy's largest network of anti-violence centers (AVCs), this study investigates whether increased female representation in local politics affects women's access to formal support services after experiencing gender-based violence. We focus on access to AVCs, as it represents a concrete step and a potential turning point toward escaping violence — distinct from more informal or exploratory forms of help-seeking. Exploiting staggered elections and the introduction of gender quotas as a natural experiment, we adopt a shift-share instrumental variable strategy to address endogeneity. We find that greater female political representation significantly increases the likelihood that women — especially those who are younger or unemployed — take this first step by seeking support from AVCs. The effect is concentrated among first-time users and in municipalities closer to an AVC. These findings are not driven by increased violence or changes in AVC funding.

Presentations

  • 6th World Labor Conference (SOLE–EALE–AASLE) — Toronto, Canada, June 2025
  • 100th Annual Conference of the Western Economic Association International (WEAI) — San Francisco, USA, 2025
  • 52nd Annual Meeting of the European Public Choice Society (EPCS) — Stockholm School of Economics in Riga, Latvia, 2025
  • 36th Annual Conference of the Italian Society for Public Economics (SIEP) — University of Cagliari, Italy, 2024
Female Political Representation and Budget Forecast Errors Published
with De Benedetto M. and Giacobbe P.

This paper examines how female representation in municipal executive boards — the primary budgetary decision-making bodies in Italian local governments — affects both the accuracy and bias of budget forecasts. We exploit Law 56/2014, which mandated gender quotas in municipalities with more than 3,000 residents, to identify causal effects. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in the share of female aldermen reduces expenditure and revenue forecast errors by 0.5 and 0.4 percent, respectively, and systematically mitigates the prevailing optimistic bias in projections, particularly in pre-election years. Mechanism analyses highlight two main channels: (i) higher levels of technical competence and (ii) lower scope for political manipulation, with the strongest effects observed in social spending and in regions with weaker accountability.

Presentations

  • 66th Annual Conference of the Italian Economic Association (SIE) — University of Naples Parthenope, Italy, 2025
  • 37th Annual Conference of the Italian Society for Public Economics (SIEP) — University of Naples Federico II, Italy, 2025
Enhancing the Understanding of Income Inequality among Italian Municipalities: The Role of Environmental Risk Published
Italian Economic Journal, 2025, pp.1–86
with Errico L. and Rondinella S.

This study examines the relationship between environmental risks — such as hydrogeological hazards, landslides, volcanic zones, and earthquakes — and income inequality across Italian municipalities, using a comprehensive dataset from 2010 to 2020. Our analysis reveals that municipalities exposed to higher risks, particularly from hydrogeological and landslide hazards, exhibit significantly higher levels of income inequality. Conversely, earthquake risk, notably in Southern Italy, is associated with lower levels of inequality, likely attributable to its disproportionate impact on wealthier individuals, who are more susceptible to real estate and investment losses, further exacerbated by the economic uncertainty associated with such hazards. These findings underscore the importance of focused mitigation strategies and effective communication policies aimed not only at minimizing the physical impacts of these hazards but also at addressing the economic uncertainties they engender, thereby fostering more equitable economic outcomes.

Ethnic Minorities and Income Inequality: The Albanian Community in Italy Published
Journal of Economic Studies, 2025, 52(1), pp.38–54
with Errico L. and Rondinella S.

This study explores whether ethnic minorities exhibit varying levels of income inequality compared to the host population. The research leverages a unique immigration event in Italy, specifically the settlement of multiple Albanian groups in southern Italy during the 16th century. This historical occurrence enables an investigation into the role of cultural traits in income inequality, as these groups are situated in the same geographical region and often share borders. The results, which remain consistent after undergoing various robustness checks, indicate that Albanian villages, while still preserving their identity and tradition, tend to experience an approximately 2% lower level of income concentration compared to similar Italian municipalities. Our findings aim to provide supporting evidence for future policy considerations regarding the long-term impact of immigration on income inequality.

Home Advantage, Crowding, and Gender Referee: Evidence from Major Women's Leagues Published Editor's Choice
Journal of Neuroscience, Psychology, and Economics, 2024, 17(3–4), p.145
with Errico L., Ferrari D., Morabito L. and Rondinella S.

This article explores the presence of home advantage concerning both team performance and referee decisions in major women's soccer leagues. Specifically, we investigate whether this phenomenon is associated with crowding, using stadium attendance density as an explanatory factor, moving beyond the binary distinction between open and closed doors. Drawing on a unique dataset spanning various women's soccer leagues from 2018 to 2023, our findings indicate that teams in densely populated stadiums demonstrate enhanced performance across all examined indicators. This underscores the significance of stadium noise, rather than merely the presence of fans, in influencing home team performance. Additionally, a slight home advantage in terms of referee decisions is observed exclusively in matches officiated by male referees, regardless of stadium crowds. This suggests that male referees may experience heightened home pressure compared to their female counterparts.

The Effect of Priming Student Identity on IQ-Test Score: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial Published
Italian Economic Journal, 2023, 10(2), pp.733–759
with Ordine P. and Rose G.

This work evaluates whether by rendering more salient to students their own student identity it is possible to increase their effort and performance in an IQ-test. The idea is based on the assumption that individuals' behaviour is often influenced by cues that work subconsciously and prime them to behave in certain ways. By implementing a randomized control trial on students of two universities in two European countries — namely the University of Essex (UK) and the University of Calabria (Italy) — we report that students primed with pictures and videos targeted to render their student identity more salient obtain higher IQ-test scores than students exposed to neutral pictures/videos.

Presentations

  • 37th Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics (AIEL)
  • XXXV European Society for Population Economics (ESPE)
University-Court Proximity: What Are the Effects on the Legal System Performance? Published
Regional Economy, 2023, 7(Q1), pp.21–33
with Errico L. and Rondinella S.

This paper investigates whether and to what extent the proximity of the court location and the nearest university affect court productivity. We exploit data from the Italian Ministry of Justice during the period 2014–2021 by considering the length of proceedings as the outcome variable. Results show that the average time to conclude legal proceedings increases as the distance between courts and universities increases. However, only courts located in the Centre-North of Italy benefit from the spatial spillovers deriving from the proximity to the university.

Working papers

The Political Economy of Femicides: Local Spending Responses, Electoral Incentives and Nationality Bias Under Review

We study how Italian municipalities adjust fiscal policy after femicides and whether migration-related concerns shape these responses. Linking administrative data on femicides with municipal budgets, we use staggered difference-in-differences models treating femicides as shocks to the local salience of violence. Femicides lead to sizable, persistent increases in security spending, concentrated on local police, with little expansion of prevention or social services for women at risk. The response is much larger and longer-lasting when the perpetrator is foreign-born. This pattern suggests that high-profile crimes by foreigners are politicized as public-order threats, diverting scarce resources toward visible security measures instead of victim-support.

Presentations

  • 37th Annual Conference of the Italian Society for Public Economics (SIEP) — University of Naples Federico II, Italy, 2025
  • 40th Annual Meeting of the European Economic Association (EEA) — Bordeaux School of Economics, France, 2025
Voting After Gendered Shocks: The Impact of Femicides on Electoral Preferences Under Review

We estimate how local femicides affect voting and turnout in subsequent Italian parliamentary elections. We merge a geocoded registry of femicides (2011–2022) with municipality-level results for the national elections (2013, 2018, 2022) and exploit staggered exposure to a municipality's first femicide. Using difference-in-differences estimators designed for staggered adoption, we find an electoral backlash against the Center-Right coalition: its vote share falls by about 2.2 percentage points, with offsetting gains for the Five Star Movement (+1.0 pp) and the Center-Left (+0.5 pp). Femicides also reduce participation: turnout declines by about 0.8 percentage points, with larger declines among women than men. Heterogeneity by nationality suggests that backlash is concentrated in cases involving Italian victims or Italian perpetrators; when the perpetrator is foreign, the Center-Right effect is small and statistically indistinguishable from zero. The results are consistent with electoral sanctioning and demobilization following salient failures of protection, with attribution shaped by identity cues.

Soccer Matches as Emotional Stressors and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Daily AVC Admissions Under Review
with De Luca D., Giacobbe P., Ordine P. and Rose G.

We merge original daily data on admissions to an Anti-Violence Center (AVC) in Southern Italy with the local soccer team's match results from 2013–2018 to test whether sporting events influence violence against women. We find that home defeats lead to a significant increase in AVC admissions, with effects amplified when the team was favored to win according to betting odds. The impact is concentrated in cases involving partners or ex-partners and among Italian perpetrators. Overall, the results indicate that salient emotional events can exacerbate dynamics within abusive relationships. Importantly, our evidence suggests that women's decisions to seek formal support and begin a pathway out of violence are often made immediately after a tipping point in ongoing abuse.

Presentations

  • 37th Annual Conference of the Italian Society for Public Economics (SIEP) — University of Naples Federico II, Italy, 2025
Aligning Finance with Sustainability: Evidence from Banks Under Review
with Yılmaz I., Rondinella S. and Silipo D.

To align the bank's business and portfolio with the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement, the United Nations launched in 2019 the UN Principles for Sustainable Banking. More than half of the banking industry worldwide adhered to the principles. We build up a dataset which includes all the banks that adhered to the UN Principles (277) and a sample of 669 peer nonmember banks from 77 countries to study what are the determinants and effects of membership on banking behavior and performance. The results show that larger, listed and riskier banks are more likely to join the UN Principles. In contrast, a higher intensity of CO₂ (CO₂/GDP) of the country, climate-related natural disasters, public awareness of global warming, or the Paris agreement do not stimulate the likelihood of adherence. Interestingly, a higher bank's market power decreases the incentive to join the UN Principles. The behaviour and performance of member banks relative to non-members did not change significantly upon membership. Member banks overstate their green language in the annual report in relation to their behaviour and ESG performance, although only 27% of them reveal information about the CO₂ content of their loans. Overall, the paper suggests that current UN Principles do not spur the green transition and highlights the symbolic nature of voluntary green commitments in banking.

Presentations

  • 2025 World Finance Conference
  • 66th Annual Conference of the Italian Economic Association (SIE)
Work against Violence Against Women: The Case of Employment Incentives to Victims Hosted by Anti-Violence Centers Submitted
with Ordine P. and Rose G.

This study analyzes whether active policy measures aimed at improving employment opportunities for women who are victims of intimate partner violence might lead to a reduction in the number of violent episodes. The empirical study exploits a temporary reform in Italian policy which, in 2018, provided financial incentives to firms established as social cooperatives for the permanent hiring of women who were victims of violence and involved in a recovery program at an anti-violence center. Identification is achieved by exploiting the fact that these firms are distributed across Italian provinces with a high degree of heterogeneity. The main result shows that after the introduction of the reform the number of recurring cases registered in anti-violence centers decreased most where there is a greater presence of incentivized firms. Victims' economic empowerment, improvement in household income and a reduction in exposure time are all channels consistent with this result.

Identity and Racial Bias in Professional Football: Evidence from Refereeing Decisions Submitted
with De Luca D., Ferrari D. and Giacobbe P.

This paper studies whether disciplinary sanctions in European professional football differ systematically by player race. Using player–match data from UEFA Champions League and Europa League competitions, we show that Black players are more likely than otherwise comparable non–Black players to receive both yellow and red cards. In our preferred specification, the gap is about 1.2 percentage points for yellow cards and 0.18 percentage points for red cards. We find no meaningful difference in net fouls committed, suggesting that observable on–field conduct alone is unlikely to account for the sanctioning gap. We then examine whether this differential varies across contexts. Identity–related proximity between referee and player does not reveal a systematic pattern of heterogeneity, while the yellow–card gap is larger among Black players with conflict–related background, consistent with a possible behavioral channel. Additional results show that VAR and home advantage do not systematically reduce the gap. Overall, the paper documents a persistent sanctioning gap by player race in a highly regulated sporting environment.

The Role of Natural Hazard on Income Inequality F. Pastore Award
with Errico L. and Rondinella S.

This study investigates the relationship between environmental risks and income inequality within Italian municipalities, utilising data spanning from 2010 to 2020. Specifically, leveraging a unique dataset drawing upon various sources, we analyse the impact of environmental hazards such as hydrogeological risks, landslides, volcanic zones, and earthquakes on income distribution. Our findings suggest that municipalities facing heightened environmental risks tend to exhibit increased income inequality, with results being driven by hydrogeological risks, landslides, and volcanic zones. On the other hand, earthquake risk appears to alleviate income inequality, particularly in the South of the country. Our results underscore the significance of preventive and communication measures not only in mitigating the impact of such natural hazards but also in managing the associated economic uncertainty.

Presentations

  • XXIII AISSEC Scientific Conference — University of Verona–Vicenza

Work in progress

Pathways out of Violence: Evidence on the Role of a Temporary Cash Transfer to Victims of Abuse in Italy VisitINPS Fellowship 2024
with Bhalotra S., Ordine P., Rose G. and Rubolino E.

Teaching

Feel free to contact me for syllabi or further information.

Università Magna Graecia di Catanzaro

Economics of Crime
a.y. 2023–2024  ·  2024–2025  ·  2025–2026

Contacts

I welcome inquiries from students, collaborators and policy practitioners.

Email andrea.mosca@unibg.it Address Department of Economics
University of Bergamo
Via dei Caniana 2, 24127 Bergamo, Italy
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